Anutin Chavnvirakul will most likely remain in his position as Thailand’s Prime Minister after his Bhumjaithai Party won the majority of seats in lower house elections last week.
This was a significant defeat for Thailand’s prodemocracy movements and the People’s Party.
The election, while the People’s Party did make some mistakes in its campaign, reveals the enormous obstacles that progressive and democratic parties face in a nation where military-backed forces wield disproportionate influence.
After leading most polls before the election, it finished in second place. The People’s Party will be the main opposition in the country.
Pheu Thai, the once powerful party that came in third place, agreed to join Bhumjaithai’s ruling coalition.
What does an election signify for a nation’s future?
What’s the next step for the prodemocracy group that has been trying to reform the country for many years?
What is Anutin Chanutvirakul all about?
Anutin, the son of a former premier and acting minister, took control of Bhumjaithai Party in 2014 from his father. Anutin had previously followed his father to the construction company, which is one of Thailand’s largest.
Anutin rose to prominence in the country as the main supporter of the legalisation which decriminalised marijuana. However, he has now distanced himself to try and appeal to conservative voters.
Anutin Charnvirakul is the leader of Bhumjaithai Party and Prime Minister. Rungroj Yongrit/EPA
Anutin was appointed premier last year, after Paetongtarn, the former prime minister of Thailand, had been removed for allegedly being too accommodating towards Cambodia in a border dispute.
Anutin, the People’s Party’s surprise choice as prime minister of the Parliament, was elected in return for the pledge of constitutional reform.
Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Party, which was formerly a provincial party, became a player at the national level. This allowed Anutin to recruit influential defections to his party.
Early December saw a decline in support for the government due to its mishandling floods in Southern Thailand, and allegations that it was connected to scammers.
Anutin began preemptive strikes against Cambodia in response to their dispute over the border. The public was enraged and the tensions at home were relieved.
Anutin dissolved the parliament after the People’s Party announced its intention to pull out of the coalition.
Airstrikes and drone attacks along with ground clashes were continued in the following weeks, making national security a major election issue.
The conservatives benefited, while the People’s Party was challenged.
Can progressives have a shot in Thailand?
The struggles of previous parties in Thailand to establish themselves in politics are at the root of many of the People’s Party’s issues.
The Move Forward Party was the party that won the majority of seats in the 2023 elections.
The conservatives in Thai society prevented its leader from becoming Prime Minister.
The Thai Constitutional Court then disbanded the party. It was the same pattern as its predecessor Future Forward, which had been dissolved following its impressive performance in the 2019 elections.
In less than 24 hours after the closing of last week’s polls, the National Anti-Corruption Commission ruled unanimously that 44 former legislators from the Move Forward Party had committed grave ethical misconduct in proposing changes to Section 112 of the Criminal Code. The Lese Majeste Law is a strict law which punishes anyone who insults or disparages the Thai monarchy.
These lawmakers could be banned from politics for life, including the leader of the People’s Party, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut and 14 newly-elected party MPs.
Has the People’s Party lost its support?
The voting results show that the People’s Party didn’t lose support for Bhumjaithai as many news headlines suggested.
Thailand’s elections for the lower house are governed by the 2017 military constitution. This includes 400 seats by constituency, which is a first-past election system. 100 seats by party lists that use proportional representation.
Bhumjaithai performed very well on rural and regional seats where there are more alleged patronage and vote buying networks.
Following reports of irregularities in the election, some groups have called for a national recount.
They also want the vote count from the polling station released and certain races rerun.
Protests are held at the National Electoral Office in Bangkok by a man with a banner that reads ‘nationwide ballot recount.’
Rungroj Yongrit/EPA
The People’s Party Leader has admitted that, even if irregularities had occurred, it would not have changed the result.
Bangkok was a cosmopolitan city with educated voters. The party won all 33 constituency seats. It struggled, however, to gain seats in rural or regional areas.
The progressive party won the list voting for the national parties. The progressive party won around 30% of national votes, while Bhumjaithai came in second with 18%.
It is possible that some voters split their vote, choosing to support a Bhumjaithai local candidate and the People’s Party on the list. The People’s Party is not able to take advantage of this, as the MPs on the list only make up one fifth of lower house.
A referendum to amend the Constitution (held simultaneously with the elections) was easily passed.
Anutin, and now the conservatives in charge of the process could drag on for many years.
In their hands it might not bring about the progressive changes.
