US President Donald Trump has changed his position almost every day, going from threats of taking Greenland by force to assurances that he will not. One thing, however, remains constant: Trump’s insistence that the Arctic Island is vitally important to the United States.
In the hours following the Davos Summit, reports began to circulate that Washington and Copenhagen were quietly discussing giving small patches of Greenland as new military bases. The whispers were all true, nothing was confirmed. But the rapidity of speculation told a story.
What was once interpreted as Trumpian theater now appears to be a genuine geopolitical maneuver. This was also an indication that the Arctic is now affecting outer-space politics.
All of this happened in a flash. At first, the idea that Denmark might sell Greenland to the US (which was resurfaced again in 2019) seemed like an absurd late-night sketch.
Behind the jokes was a growing disquiet that the Trump administration’s obsession with Greenland is part of an overall geostrategic agenda in the “western hemisphere” – and beyond.
Greenland is at the intersection of two rapidly shifting frontiers. A warming Arctic will alter shipping routes and an outer space that’s becoming militarized.
The island is a gauge of geopolitical tension, and reveals how international law has begun to unravel as global tensions increase.
Pituffik Space Base is at the heart of all this, previously known as Thule Aero Base. It was once a Cold War Outpost but is now an important part of US Space Force’s hub. This includes everything from climate monitoring to missile detection.
Visibility is gold in a world of orbit as the new strategic high ground.
The Space Law in Vacuum
Trump is a strong believer in this logic. Thule is one of his favorite assets to watch what’s happening above Earth. He has repeatedly encouraged the US to consider all options to increase its presence.
Greenland remains central to America’s Arctic and Space ambitions, whether by payment, force or negotiation.
It’s not only about surveillance. Greenland offers prime conditions for rocket launches, as private companies are launching rockets in record numbers.
Sites at high latitudes are perfect for the launch of payloads to polar and sun-synchronous orbits. Greenland is a possible Arctic launch center because of its vast expanses, open oceans and wide corridors. The island has become a premium property as global launch capacities are tightened due to access issues and fewer sites available.
The US interest in Greenland has increased as “rules based” international orders have proven increasingly unreliable in maintaining security and peace.
The space law is particularly vulnerable today. Outer Space Treaty 1967 was designed for two superpowers at the time (the USSR and US) with only a handful of satellites. It did not consider private mega constellations or commercial lunar projects.
We also did not expect that Earth-based stations such as Thule/Pituffik will decide who has the ability to monitor or control orbit.
The treaty is being tested to its limits as countries compete for strategic positions. The major powers treat the orbital and terrestrial realms as strategic assets that they must control and protect, rather than global commons.
Greenland is a warning sign
Greenland is located on the fault line. The US would have a large share of the global surveillance capability if it were to extend its control over Greenland. That imbalance raises uncomfortable questions.
What can be done to make space a commons for all when so many of the resources needed are in fewer hands? What happens when the geopolitical rivalry on Earth spills over into space?
How should the international law be adapted when terrestial territory is used as a portal for extraterrestrial influences? Many observers see a bleak future. Many observers believe that the international legal order is not improving but rather eroding.
Geopolitical tensions have paralyzed the Arctic Council. This is the premier intergovernmental forum for promoting Arctic cooperation. United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space cannot keep up with the pace of commercial innovation. New space laws are increasingly putting resource rights and competitive advantage ahead of collective governance in several countries.
In this context, Greenland is more than a strategic advantage; it is a warning.
Greenlanders’ stakes are immediately high. Greenlanders are vulnerable, yet have leverage because of the strategic importance of their island. Greenland will gain in geopolitical importance as the Arctic ice melts, and new shipping lanes open up.
The people of the country must balance the global ambitions with their own economic and political futures, which may include independence from Denmark.
The Arctic, which began as a mere political curiosity, is now a focal point of the governance of the universe. Laws and treaties governing this huge icy region and its space are struggling to stay up to date.
It’s no longer just an outpost in the north, but a gateway into orbit that allows political and military influence to be exerted from above.
