Donald Trump seems to have a significant change of mind about Ukraine. It appears that he is embracing a fervent optimism about Kyiv’s ability to “fight and win all of Ukraine in its original state”.
The message was that Europeans would need to take the lead to achieve this. Trump said that a Ukrainian win depends on time, patience and financial support from Europe, especially NATO.
Only “supply weapons to NATO so that NATO can do whatever they like with them” is the US’s commitment. The most telling part of Trump’s Truth Social letter is the closing: “Good Luck to All!”. This may be the strongest indication that Trump is abandoning his peace efforts.
This also implies that he’s given up on an independent deal with Vladimir Putin, his Russian counterpart. The good news stops here. Now, the European coalition will have to work hard in order to provide stability and security for Europe amid an increasingly volatile climate.
Drones, thought to be highly linked to Russia after several weeks of Russian incursions in Nato airspace – disrupted Danish Airspace twice near Copenhagen Airport. The drones were a premonition of the dystopian wars that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky predicted in his address to the UN General Assembly in New York, on September 24,
Putin’s continued provocations pose a significant challenge to Kyiv and its European allies. The European Union has certainly shown that it’s willing to use its rhetorical muscle to meet this challenge.
The EU institutions have always been clear that they are determined to bring an end to Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine, and achieve a “just and lasting peace” for Ukraine, as Ursula von der Leyen said in the most recent State of Union address.
The coalition of willing faces a variety of problems that go beyond rhetoric. Taken together, they show the unimaginable challenge facing Kyiv and its European allies.
Coalition Confusion
The coalition of the willful is not an organized body. The coalition of the willing includes Nato members and EU as well as Australia and New Zealand. It also has South Korea, Japan, and Australia. The United States does not belong to their ranks.
In February it had eight participants plus EU and Nato. By April there were 33 and by September, 39. The relationship between the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a group of 57 countries that provide military support to Kyiv, and its 30th annual meeting held in September is unclear.
Different levels of commitment reflect the lack of cohesiveness in the membership, such as the ability to send a reassurance team after the ceasefire was declared in Ukraine or the willingness.
Also, it’s not clear if the leaders of Nato and the EU are speaking on behalf of all their members. Hungary and Slovakia are two EU/NATO members who have adopted ambiguous positions when it comes defending Europe from Russia.
According to Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, the rapid development in drone technology revolutionises warfare in 21st century.
AP Photo/Yevhen Titov
The different commitment levels also reveal partially contradictory priorities. Nato members in Europe are deeply concerned – not wrongly so – about the US’s abandonment. Add fears of an impending trade war to the mix, and Donald Trump’s pacification becomes more important.
By buying US weapons, you may be able to please Trump while also ensuring that Europe can supply Ukraine. It is not the most effective way to ensure the development of an independent European defence and industrial base, which is urgently required.
Trump’s return as president of the United States brought an end to US generosity in supporting Ukraine. The Europeans only partially filled this gap. Germany took the lead, and the EU mobilized over EUR10 billion in its budget for the current year to 2027.
It’s unclear how long this effort will last, given the inflationary pressure and spending demands at home. France’s finances are dire, and Spain is openly defying Nato’s spending goal of 5%.
Europe must step up its game – and fast
A much faster defence-industrial collaboration across the entire coalition would help to solve these issues, even with Ukraine. This could eventually help build up the defence and industrial capacity to manufacture military equipment on the scale required.
Leaders from the “coalition” meeting to be held in Paris September 2025.
EPA/Ludovic Marin/pool
It will take time to fill in critical manpower gaps, deal with the Russian threat of drones, strengthen air defences, long-range attack capabilities and replace the possible loss of US Intelligence Support.
The various multilateral platforms in which countries cooperate must decide on how to balance the three priorities that are only partly aligned. Europe, whether it is defined by the EU or European Nato, as well as the core coalition of willing, urgently requires upgrading its defenses. This requires a large-scale European defence industry.
The Europeans need to buy Trump to ensure that the US remains engaged, as they lack crucial capabilities which will require time to develop. While building up better defense capabilities, they must also keep Ukraine engaged in the battle against Russia so that it does not lose the war.
Europe must increase its money, build up the military muscles, and create decision-making processes that do not procrastinate in order to defeat the proxy war the Kremlin has waged against Ukraine and her allies. This will allow Europeans to be in the best position possible to stop Russia expanding its conflict with Ukraine and escalating into a full-blown war with western nations.
