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Never interrupt an enemy who is making a mistake.
As the U.S. War in Iran continued, policymakers in Moscow or Beijing may have thought of Napoleon Bonaparte’s maxim. Now that the ceasefire has been in place for 14 days, both Washington and Tehran are claiming victory. This gives Russian and Chinese officials a chance to capitalize on what they see as America’s latest miscalculation in the Middle East.
China and Russia maintained a delicate equilibrium throughout the conflict.
China and Russia refused to fully support Iran, which they viewed to different degrees as their ally. They also declined to incur any costs in the conflict.
They chose to provide limited support in the form small-scale intelligence or diplomatic assistance.
In my opinion, as a student of security issues and the politics of great powers I think this is a good thing. Beijing and Moscow knew that Iran’s military strength was insufficient to “win” a war against Israel and the United States. Iran needed only to survive in order to continue serving the geopolitical interests of Washington’s major rivals.
Here are four ways that the U.S. War in Iran has hurt Washington’s standing in the Great Power Rivals of 21st Century.
1. The Middle East is losing the war of influence
In my book, “Defending Frenemies,” I examine how the U.S.
struggled for years to achieve a balance between competing goals in the Middle East. This meant, during the Cold War, reducing the Soviet Union’s influence in this region while also contending with nuclear weapons developed by Israel and Pakistan, two problematic allies.
Washington’s priorities by the 2020s were to limit the influence of U.S. rivals in the Middle East – China, and less so Russia.
In 2025, Russians, Chinese and Iranian Diplomats will meet in Beijing. Lintao Zhang/Pool Photo via AP
Under Presidents Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin have both sought to expand their presence in the area through a number of informal and formal measures.
This took place in Russia when it aligned with Iran and partnered with Tehran during the civil war to support the regime that was now ousted of Bashar al-Assad. China, on the other hand, increased its profile diplomatically in the Middle East by playing a role as a facilitator when Saudi Arabia and Iran returned diplomatic relations in 2023.
Irony in the recent Iran War is that the war comes after a time when the Middle East was not conducive to Russian or Chinese ambitions of expanding their influence.
After the fall of Assad, Russia lost its only reliable ally within this region. Trump’s tour to the Gulf States in May 2025, where he signed major economic and technology deals with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as well as Qatar and Bahrain was designed to counter China’s increasing economic and diplomatic power in these countries.
Gulf States may look for greater economic and security cooperation in other places, as Washington is perceived to be an unreliable protector.
2. Take US attention off of other strategic goals
Russia and China have been exploiting the desire of Washington, to shift its attention and assets away from the Middle East after two expensive wars, in Iraq and Afghanistan, by expanding their military, diplomatic, and economic relations in the Middle East over the last two decades.
Trump’s war on Iran is in direct contradiction to the national security plan his administration published in November 2025. The strategy stated that the United States would place a priority on the Western Hemisphere, Indo-Pacific and Asia, with the Middle East “receding in importance.”
Trump’s co-launching of a war with Israel in Tehran, without consulting Washington’s allies beforehand, shows a total disregard for their economic and strategic concerns. NATO has been further divided by Trump’s threats against the alliance, and his plans for Greenland.
This is good news for China and Russia who have been trying to exploit the cracks in America’s alliance with its other allies.
Irony again: the Iran war came at a time when Trump was advancing his vision of America as a hegemonic force in the Western Hemisphere. Washington, despite legitimate concerns and international law issues, had a new leader in Venezuela to replace Nicolas Maduro who was a constant thorn on its side.
3. Disproportionate economic fallout
The U.S. was not surprised by Iran’s decision to close the Strait of Hormuz where 20% of world oil flows.
This meant that Russia’s war economy was boosted by higher oil prices.
This led to a temporary, but continuing easing of U.S. economic sanctions. It has given Moscow a lifeline following years of pressure due to the conflict in Ukraine.
Xi seems willing to take on these risks, for a while.
By building up its own oil reserves and diversifying the energy mix to include solar power, batteries, and coal, China will be better equipped to weather an extended global energy crisis. Beijing made significant strides over the past year in encouraging domestic consumption to drive economic growth rather than being so dependent on international trade. This may have provided China with some protection from the economic shock brought on by the Iran War, and pushed the Chinese economy in a more positive direction.
Iran is reportedly restricting ships coming from non-friendly countries.
Former Chinese foreign minister watches as Iranian diplomats and Saudi officials shake hands in 2023, during talks mediated by Beijing.
Iranian Foreign Ministry through AP
4. Global leadership is lost
Trump’s unwillingness to talk and his contradictory language throughout the Iran conflict have weakened America’s reputation as a fair broker.
This is a huge soft power boost to Beijing. China was the one that forced Iran to accept Pakistan’s 14-day ceasefire offer. China is slowly eroding America’s status as the world’s first mediator.
Beijing was able to successfully mediate in the past, between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It also tried the same thing with Russia, Ukraine, Israel and Palestinians.
The Iran War has generally reinforced Beijing’s view that the U.S.
led liberal international order no longer exists. China may have benefited in some way from the continuation of the war, but its decision to broker the ceasefire demonstrates that China has increasingly taken over the role as global leader that was previously held by the U.S.
For Russia, Trump’s war with Iran and the split between him and America’s NATO allies due to their refusal to support it has diverted the world’s attention from the conflict in Ukraine.
