In 2025, the global instability had little impact on international tourism. The UN Tourism Data Dashboard shows that the number of travellers from around the world last year was over 1.5 billion. This is higher than the pre-pandemic level. Geopolitics is not the issue, it’s how they reshape tourist flows.
Geopolitical crisis had a significant impact on the travel industry for a considerable period of time. Instability caused fewer travelers, fewer bookings and less activity.
Even in the face mounting conflict and uncertainty, the international tourism industry has grown since the Pandemic.
As numbers increase, so do travel patterns. The Gulf is a good example of how travel patterns are changing as numbers increase.
This regional strategy appeared well-established before the Iran war began. Dubai is expected to welcome almost 20 millions international tourists in 2025. Qatar’s capital Doha has been named as the Gulf Tourism Capital of 2026.
To remain attractive, however, these nations must ensure connectivity and stability. Both are severely compromised by the current conflict.
There are winners and losers
The perception of a risk in tourism is as significant as the actual risk. Many travellers may choose to avoid a destination that is not directly affected by war, crisis or conflict, but will still do so if they perceive it as unstable.
Many travellers don’t stop traveling in uncertain times, but instead they change destinations to places that they consider safer, easier or more predictable.
The tourism industry is not going away, but it has shifted.
The crisis between Israel, the US and Iran has already shifted tourist demand to destinations that are considered more safe. Some major tour operators, for example, have boosted their capacity on the Canary Islands following a temporary withdrawal from the Middle East.
The driving forces behind these trends are geopolitical: the perception of international risk, political stability, and air connectivity.
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Travel costs
After the Iran crisis broke out early in March, major airports such as Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi either had to close or face restrictions. Middle East is responsible for 14 percent of all international transit traffic.
Dubai, Abu Dhabi Doha, and Bahrain together handle around 526,000 people per day.
The reorganization also impacts other hubs of air transportation, since when major routes are interrupted, traffic is diverted to more stable or safer alternatives. Istanbul Airport is a hub that connects Europe, Asia, and Africa.
The instability of the Gulf could help it to become a more important global transit point by attracting travelers who used to travel via Dubai, Doha, or Abu Dhabi.
Both air travel and tourism in cities are affected by this.
Increased stopovers lead to more tourists spending money, staying longer in the city, and a greater visibility of that destination internationally.
All of this is in addition to direct economic costs. According to estimates by the World Travel and Tourism Council, the conflict between Iran and Israel is costing the tourism industry daily around $600,000,000. This is passed onto travellers as more expensive and longer journeys, with more uncertainty.
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Changes in tourist behavior
Tourists adjust their choices in times of uncertainty. Travel insurance is more popular, as are bookings that have flexible cancellation policies. Instability also increases interest in nearby or easily accessible destinations.
A balance must be struck between safety and price. Many travellers choose a destination that is attractive but also safe if there are concerns about it or if the costs involved in getting to the location exceeds their budget.
Demand patterns change. In 2025, Allianz Insurance saw its Spanish travel insurance sales increase by 9%, and cancellations accounted for over half of the claims. Travellers are still keen to go on holiday, but they’re becoming increasingly cautious.
What counts is stability
What is going on in the Gulf is proof that many places are appealing because they have a feeling of safety, predictability and well-connectedness.
Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi have built their reputations on innovation, luxury, and major events. But this advantage is dependent on reliable travel routes, and an overall perception of security. These disappearances don’t only affect specific destinations, but the whole map.
Now, other countries are gaining popularity. Winners may not always be those with the best deals or most impressive attractions, but the winners will be those that provide travellers with the best experience, including better connectivity, reduced uncertainty and a sense of normality.
At least not yet, geopolitics doesn’t seem to be the cause of the collapse in global tourism. It does, however, create a more fragmented system, which is also more unjust and sensitive to risk perceptions.
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