US President Donald Trump brought Greenland into the spotlight of international politics by proposing to purchase the vast, frozen island in the beginning of this year. On March 11, 2025, Greenlandics voted in front of the entire world and won a massive victory for the party who told Trump: “We aren’t for sale.”
Greenland, an autonomous territory in the Kingdom of Denmark, is at war for its independence. The right-wing Demokraatit, now the biggest party in Greenland, as well as the socialist Inuit Ataqatigiit that was recently defeated are both pro-independence. They also support a more gradual process of independence than Naleraq (populist and nationalist party), which did also well in the elections.
Foreign observers might have been drawn to Greenland because of Trump. But they should not turn away. This election outcome has increased the likelihood of a Greenland future fueled by fossil fuels, at a time when climate change is a global crisis that demands an urgent transition to renewable energies.
Greenland’s economic base is crucial to its future. Greenland has some of the largest, untapped reserves of oil and natural gas in the world.
US Geological Survey estimates that the east coast of Greenland alone has 31 billion barrels equivalent to oil, and West Greenland contains about half. Greenland, if all of this could be recovered, would become the largest fossil fuel producer in the world.
These fossil fuels can be extremely hard to get. A vast icesheet on land and icebergs in the sea made it difficult for fossil fuel companies. Greenland fossil fuels are currently not economically and technically viable.
In this context, IA passed an act banning all fossil-fuel exploration and extraction after it won the election in 2021. The ban was justified due to the adverse effects a fossil-fuel industry could have on Greenland’s fragile climate and environment, along with the domestic fishing industries, which account for 98% of Greenland’s exports.
This ban is part of a worldwide movement that aims to reduce not only the consumption, but also supply of fossil fuels. It is argued that fossil fuel extraction must stop to prevent climate change. Greenland then joined the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance of countries that share similar views and have implemented legislation.
Costa Rica, France, and Sweden are also members. Denmark is the most impressive – it’s the first major oil and gas producing country to pledge to phase out fossil fuel production by 2050. Even though major oil and gas producers such as the US go in the other direction, the global effort to stop fossil fuel production continues to grow.
No oil until after independence
The 2025 campaign did not focus on oil. Qulleq, which means “oil” in Inuit, and refers to Inuit oil lamp, was a party that proposed an independent Greenland powered by fossil fuels. However, it failed to gain a seat in the Inatsisartut, the 31-seat Parliament.
Jens-Frederik Nielsen is the chairman of Demokraatit. He celebrated their 30% vote.
EPA-EFE/Mads Claus Rasmussen
The dramatically altered political landscape, despite Qulleq’s failure will enable significant changes in the future of fossil-fuel production. Only IA is adamantly opposed to the idea of rethinking the ban on fossil fuels. Oil must now be understood more than ever in the context of the current independence movement.
Greenland is not Denmark’s property. In 2009 and 2020, legislation was passed that gave the Greenlandic government full control over the subsurface of the territory. Denmark’s annual grant of EUR600,000,000 (PS503,000,000) to Greenland is currently EUR600,000,000. Denmark therefore has the right to receive half the profits generated from the natural resources, up to this amount.
According to pre-election declarations by parties, the parliamentary majority is not yet in place for oil extraction or exploration. Naleraq, and centre-left Siumut, are open to oil extraction, but not until Greenland can retain 100 percent of its revenues. This means that the Danish block grants will be abolished after independence.
Fossil fuels may be a dangerous but tempting way to build the foundation for an independent Greenland, when faced with the challenge of a postcolonial nation. In the shadow cast by Denmark’s colonial past, the only people who can decide the fate of Greenland are the Greenlanders.
The fate of Greenland’s oil and natural gas has major implications for not only the Greenlandic population, but also for the entire world. Greenland, as one of those places that is most susceptible to climate change and its consequences, has already felt the impact of fossil fuels. The new government’s decision to rely on extraction to achieve political and economic autonomy will be devastating for the planet.
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