Myanmar’s generals decapitated their elected government five years ago on 1 February 2021. Democratic leaders have been arrested, forced underground or exiled.
The economy has been chugging along ever since, and many foreign investors are now fleeing the country. Only a few industries are growing, mainly scams centres, illegal drugs and criminal activity. These only benefit those who already have a lot.
It has maintained its grip on power by draconian restrictions of civil and political rights. The military junta has strengthened its combat forces by ruthless recruitment, which includes child soldiers. Now, they face revolts in nearly every part of this ethnically diverse nation.
The military can still rely on the international support of Russia. China is also playing its cards carefully to protect their interests, including the prized oil and gas access into the Indian Ocean.
The second term of US President Donald Trump has brought new unpredictable and harmful elements into great power politics.
Last year, the US Government cited “notable improvements in governance and stabilty [and] As a justification, the removal of Temporary Protection Status for Myanmar immigrants was based on “plans for fair and free elections”. A federal judge blocked the decision just a few weeks ago. However, it may force Myanmar nationals who were previously granted protection to go home.
The month-long Myanmar elections, which just ended, were far from free and fair. They were also devoid of any meaningful democratic practices.
The junta will be entrenched and the anti-democratic powers can use them to normalise their relations with Myanmar’s military leaders.
Myanmar’s deeply flawed elections
Only a small fraction of the entire country was under military control. The elections were not conducted in territory controlled by the opposition, which meant that many eligible voters could not vote.
There is therefore no real opposition to Union Solidarity and Development Party, the proxy of the military. The civil and political spaces are also severely restricted. Criticizing the elections is a crime.
National League for Democracy, the main party of opposition in this country since 1990 has been winning every election by an overwhelming margin. It has, however, been banned along with other political opposition parties. Aung San Suu Kyi and other senior party leaders have been jailed.
The citizens were forced to vote using only electronic voting machines. The situation is exacerbated by the widespread fear and increased surveillance.
In the city of Mandalay, in central Myanmar, police officers guard a voting station in the second round of the general elections.
Aung Shine Oo/AP
Myanmar to be dissolved?
The lines of control are beginning to become more defined, and may eventually lead to a Balkanisation or even a breakup of Myanmar in hostile stateslets.
Prospects for a democratic, federalised Myanmar in the future seem to be fading.
Many areas are now completely under opposition control since the coup. Consider, for example, the recent declaration of an ethnic Karen group that has declared its independence. Although they are only a part of Karens in the eastern Myanmar region, their announcement could lead to similar ones by other minorities.
Some groups may declare their independence and look for support from neighbouring governments, commercial interests and security concerns, such as China and Thailand.
The majority of neighbouring nations will feel uneasy if Myanmar continues to fracture its territorial integrity. Some see benefits. China, for instance, is known to support certain ethnic armed group in order to maintain its influence and stability along its border and protect its economic strategic assets.
Can international laws have an impact on the United States?
The conflict in Myanmar continues, but the military is defending themselves at The Hague’s International Court of Justice. The allegations are that it has committed genocide, especially during the 2017 massacres against the muslim Rohingya minority.
The junta argued that its “clearance operation” was merely a counterterrorism activity, despite creating 700,000 refugee.
Any finding that the US junta is guilty of violating international law will be of limited impact, given the disregard for the rule by the Trump administration, Russia and China.
Next?
Some ASEAN countries appear to have softened their opposition towards the junta.
In Myanmar’s first month as the leader of the group, the Philippines’ foreign minister met senior military leaders. The dilemma that regional leaders face is highlighted by this.
ASEAN tried to maintain a distance from Myanmar’s military junta in the immediate years following the coup. ASEAN’s key players, notably the authoritarian governments in Southeast Asia would like to see a normalisation of relations with the military.
In this perspective, flawed elections offer a chance for superficial democratisation.
The Myanmar people, who have spent millions of dollars fighting against the coup and all its consequences, are now faced with a difficult choice about the best way to achieve their freedom and independence.
The horizon is not filled with good economic news. IMF predicts that inflation will remain above 30% by 2026, with real GDP falling 2.7%. The IMF projects that the inflation in Myanmar will remain above 30% by 2026, with a real GDP fall of 2.7%. Currency is only worth a quarter of its value five years ago, at the time when the coup took place.
This has led to a dramatic reversal of fortunes for many Myanmar families. Untold numbers are involved in illegal and highly exploitative business.
After the election, it is certain that the military proxy will form the government. This is the Union Solidarity and Development Party. This new government is not likely to liberalise the economy and politics as much as the USDP led administration that was formed in 2010 after a similarly flawed election.
Myanmar’s military has betrayed the people too many times and brutalized them to allow them to continue making easy promises.
