Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s President, announced in a surprising announcement made on 10 February that his government was planning to hold presidential election before mid-May. He is also reported to have planned a referendum to take place alongside these elections on the peace agreement with Russia.
Zelensky has changed his stance dramatically. He had long refused to hold elections in wartime conditions, even though the mandate he was given expired in 2024. The US’s pressure on Ukraine could be a factor in the sudden change of heart. Zelensky said as much a few days back, stating that Donald Trump was pressing for an end to the conflict by June.
Trump’s timetable – likely with an eye on the US midterm elections when the White House will want to tout a Ukraine agreement as another significant foreign policy achievement – is something else. Elections and, more importantly, the feasibility of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine are two different things.
1.
How to organize a fair and free vote during wartime
First, there is the problem of logistics. Who is eligible to vote and where will they be located? Who and where could oversee the election to make sure they were fair and free? In addition to the thousands of Ukrainians who are fighting in the front lines against Russia, there are 3.7 millions internally displaced Ukrainians as well as almost 6,000,000 refugees living abroad. There is also approximately 5 million Ukrainians under Russian occupation.
The Russian ceasefire is also uncertain, and it’s needed not just to conduct the election but for the campaign that preceded them. There is also a near certainty about large-scale Russian interference in the election.
Expect something like what happened in Moldova during the presidential election, European Integration referendum in 2024, and parliamentary elections of 2025. Voters were bombarded with misinformation. Moscow recruited Orthodox Priests in order to influence the electorate.
Russia’s efforts to influence these elections were clearly limited. This will not stop Russia from trying harder and again in Ukraine.
All this makes the prospect of organizing any kind of vote, let alone an important one for a country and its citizens, look more than intimidating.
2. No realistic peace agreement yet
Second, is the viability of any deal that would bring Russia and Ukraine together. It is difficult to see how the gap between Russia and Ukraine could be closed in a way that doesn’t cross red lines on either side, especially when it comes to territory and security.
It is unlikely that a deal of this kind would be approved in Ukraine by a referendum, even if the Russian and Ukrainian Presidents were to agree to a certain form.
A referendum is likely to take place on the same date as presidential elections. It would be subjected to the same pressures in terms of eligibility and logistics.
3. Ukrainians may say “no” to peace
What would happen if the majority of Ukrainians reject the deal that was presented to them at the referendum? This would mean that negotiations or war could resume. This is more likely.
Thirdly, a fragile ceasefire could be maintained and parts of any agreement that benefits both parties implemented.
Prisoner exchanges are one example.
As was the fate of the Minsk accords in 2014 and 2015, the return to a full-scale war is firmly predicted.
Uncertain future: Ukrainians vote at a fake referendum in Mariupol on Russia’s illegal occupation of the region, in September 2022. EPA/stringer
4.
Europe has a role to play
Ukraine’s European allies have largely remained on the outside of peace talks so far. Although they may not have been directly involved in the conflict, their interests are clearly tied to any peace agreement that could be reached between Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington. It is anticipated that the mostly European coalition will play an important role in the implementation and enforcement of US security guarantees.
They are also expected to be the main force behind Ukraine’s reconstruction after the war.
After more than a year of Washington’s hostility towards Brussels, little confidence is left in US support for Ukraine. Fourthly, European acceptance of a US peace agreement cannot be assumed.
It does not mean that a deal for peace is impossible, but it’s almost certain to be so if Europe doesn’t play a role in the negotiations.
Emmanuel Macron sent his top diplomat to Moscow, Emmanuel Bonne. The two held talks at the Kremlin. Nicolas de Riviere was appointed the new French Ambassador to Moscow. This shows how important direct contact with Russia is to Paris.
Kaja Kallas is the EU’s chief of foreign affairs.
She said that the EU might appoint an ambassador to Moscow after it has decided on its message.
Washington and Moscow have not yet indicated that they are prepared to give Brussels a place at the table for negotiations, even though Brussels has some very powerful cards. These include frozen Russian assets as well as a range of other sanctions.
5. Russia cannot be trusted
It is the final question whether Russia would accept any terms of a peace deal and stick with it. US efforts to reach a settlement in the next few months suggest that the White House is confident that it can strike a peace agreement that will be acceptable to Russia and coerce Ukraine and its partners to accept it.
Donald Trump will host Vladimir Putin for talks with Alaskan officials in August 2025.
EPA/Gavril Grigorov/Sputnik/Kremlin pool
What has happened in the last few days will please Russia: the presidential elections in Ukraine, the US’s use of security guarantees to pressure Kyiv to accept more compromises and parallel US-Russian negotiations for an economic agreement.
Vladimir Putin has reached this point without any concessions. Putin has been playing the US President perfectly up to this point, but there are no signs that he will stop. Trump will almost certainly continue doing Putin’s bidding, and walk away when and if his grandiose plans unravel.
What is the backup plan?
Zelensky’s and his European allies are not sure what their backup plan will be. There is no evidence that the US timeline and plan for a deal are likely to lead to a successful conclusion.
Therefore, it’s important to develop credible alternatives very soon.
It would be smart for both the Ukrainian President and his European Allies to offer a set of elections that are logistically impossible and a referendum whose outcome is highly unpredictable. This will buy them the time needed for a change in strategy.
Putin might think that he’s successfully manipulated Trump to do his bidding. Zelensky, however, may have managed to outsmart them all – even if it meant that the war on his country would continue.
