It’s not too early to start preparing for a super El Nino, but it is too soon to predict one.
The talk of “super El Nino”, which is expected to develop in 2026, has gained momentum. Worries are growing that the climate pattern will bring severe rainfall, extreme heat, and devastating flooding across the globe.
Computer models predict extreme weather conditions at the end of this year.
Forecasting El Nino, however, is different from predicting the weather for next week. El Nino forecasts are not reliable until late spring, and this isn’t because scientists do not understand the system.
It’s because we know its limitations.
Data on sea surface temperatures for May 12th, 2026 shows a warming of the ocean along the equator, west of South America.
This is often an indication that El Nino weather conditions will be developing. NOAA Coral Reef Watch
Scientists who study El Nino spend much of their time thinking about the uncertainty and predicting what they can.
What we do know and what we don’t about El Nino, as well as why regions around the world should start preparing, even if it doesn’t fully manifest.
El Nino is difficult to predict in the spring
El Nino predictions begin with the heat that is stored under the ocean’s surface in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Data about these conditions is used to create computer models that simulate ocean temperature changes over the next few months and their impact on weather patterns across the globe.
Currently, a large amount of warm water is accumulating below the surface. This ocean heat is a good indicator of El Nino. What happens in practice depends heavily on the atmospheric conditions.
A burst in wind activity early in 2026 shaped the warm reservoir. Normal trade winds along the Pacific equator blow east-west, pushing warmer water towards Asia, and cooler water closer to South America. In April, two cyclones that crossed the equator reversed the direction of the trade winds.
The short-lived change in wind direction triggered the Kelvin Wave – an energy pulse beneath the surface of the ocean moving eastwards along the equator.
This subsurface wave has reached the east Pacific and is helping to fuel an intense heating off South America. This can look like the beginning stages of an El Nino.
There is one catch.
El Nino can only fully develop if the oceans and the atmosphere lock in a feedback cycle: warmer surface waters weaken trade winds and trigger more Kelvin waves, which push the warm water to the east and intensify the warming.
This feedback loop does not occur automatically. The process is sustained by repeated eastward bursts.
The ocean-atmosphere is unpredictable until that feedback loop becomes established. This could turn into a Super El Nino. This could be the case.
Forecasts can be most unpredictable in the spring.
Early signals may fade away if winds are not cooperative.
El Nino occurs when the surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean is about 0.5 Celsius degrees (0.9 Fahrenheit), warmer for a period of three months. A strong El Nino has temperatures over 1.5 C (2.5 F). This chart displays the Relative Pacific Nino Index, a running three-month average which accounts for background warming trends. Some forecasts are still using the Oceanic Nino Index based on absolute temperature, which may overstate El Nino’s strength when a climate is warming. NOAA
A further problem is that when models simulate strong warming of the subsurface, they may create a feedback loop stronger than what actually occurs.
Models can appear alarming, even if the system is not locked in.
The wind patterns that would have amplified the warming by mid-May 2026 had not yet been clearly identified.
This scenario has played out in the past. Forecast models in 2014 and 2017 both predicted strong El Nino by the mid-year. The predicted wind patterns did not materialize in either case, and El Nino remained weak or switched to neutral.
Early signals were there, but they didn’t translate into the follow-through that was expected.
What do forecasts say?
Current forecasts still cover a broad range of conditions for 2026-2027 in mid-May, from weak El Nino to strong El Nino.
What happens in the next few weeks depends on how the wind behaves. The system could be tipped into self-sustaining heating if trade winds weaken at just the right time.
By mid-May the long-range forecasts did not show strong wind gusts to the east that would strengthen El Nino. The opposite, in fact, was predicted for the second half: winds that blew the other way. It would take a full month of no major eastward winds to significantly slow down ocean warming.
El Nino is on the rise in the Pacific, and NOAA’s outlook for May reflects increased odds that El Nino will develop and possibly strengthen later this year.
The picture will be much clearer by the NOAA mid-June report.
El Nino impacts weather around the world
It isn’t subtle to tell the difference between an El Nino that is weak and one that is extreme. Climate patterns are reshaped across the world, and real risks with them.
El Nino can intensify into a “super event” that causes droughts and fires to spread in Indonesia and Peru, and cause heavy rains and flooding in California and parts of southern South America. The effects of El Nino could be seen by winter in the Northern Hemisphere, which is when it peaks.
El Nino’s effects on weather and climate in different parts of the world. El Nino is affected by many different factors.
Not every El Nino will be the same. NOAA
Some regions are at immediate risk.
In India, monsoon rainfall, which supports agriculture and provides water to hundreds of millions, has historically been weaker during El Nino. Monsoon changes can be so small that they cause food shortages and economic damage.
El Nino can also suppress hurricane activity, a rarity, in the Atlantic, while increasing storm activity is seen more often on the east Pacific.
Scientists at NOAA explain the impact of El Nino on weather in America.
El Nino may even temporarily increase global temperatures, due to changes in the energy balance of the planet caused by cloud cover or ocean heat.
In contrast, a weak El Nino produces far more muted effects. Predicting intensity is important.
Use uncertain forecasts to make real-world decisions
El Nino predictions are probabilistic, so deciding on how to prepare should not be dependent upon certainty but rather a risk management approach.
El Nino does not affect everyone at the same time. Some effects emerge quickly.
The impact of the Indian Monsoon on Atlantic Hurricane activity will be felt in the early summer.
El Nino can also have other impacts. El Nino’s peak, which occurs at the end of each year, brings extreme rains to South America in November or January. Heatwaves can also occur in Southeast Asia later on, usually by April the next year.
Decisions about El Nino risk in regions such as India cannot be delayed until there is more certainty.
Water infrastructure needs to be prepared now for the possibility that El Nino will cause the monsoon rains to be too low.
It would be wrong to assume that you are safe, even if forecasts indicate a reduced risk – for example, a calmer Atlantic hurricane season. Even in years that are otherwise calm, destructive hurricanes can still strike.
